All-In's 2026 Predictions

Sacks announces his move to Austin, triggering discussion of California's proposed wealth tax. The hosts debate whether the asset seizure tax will make the ballot and its impact on tech wealth migration. Half a trillion in net worth has already left California, with major implications for the state budget.

• •Sacks officially domiciled in Texas in December, closed on house and opened Austin office for Craft
• •California wealth tax would use supervoting stock provisions - Larry and Sergei's shares deemed worth $1T each vs actual $200B, making 5% tax effectively 25-50% after selling costs
• •Polymarket shows 69% chance of making ballot after Ro Khanna elevated the issue
• •Half trillion in net worth already left California from known tech figures, threatening state budget assumptions
• •Even if defeated in 2026, expectation it returns in 2028 is driving permanent exits

Hosts predict Democratic Socialists taking over the Democrat party similar to MAGA's Republican takeover. Sacks forecasts the Trump economic boom as biggest winner with 2.7% inflation, 4.3% GDP growth, and coming rate cuts. Friedberg sees DSA solidifying control while Chamath highlights anti-waste politicians.

• •Friedberg: Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) taking over Democrat Party like MAGA took Republicans
• •Sacks: Trump boom already showing - 2.7% inflation, 4.3% Q3 GDP, lowest trade deficit since 2009, job cuts down 50%
• •Predicts 75-100 basis points in rate cuts by June, big tax refunds in April from larger standard deduction
• •Chamath: Politicians fighting waste, fraud and abuse at all levels will win
• •JCal: JD Vance as copilot of MAGA vs Mamdani moment as Democrats pivot socialist

Democratic centrists face extinction as socialist ideology ascends and gerrymandering eliminates competitive districts. Chamath argues the Monroe Doctrine is dead, replaced by Trump Doctrine of hemispheric dominance and transactional relationships. Tech industry becomes lightning rod for populism on both sides.

• •Sacks: Democratic centrism dying - fewer than 24 competitive House districts due to gerrymandering, forcing moderates left to avoid primary challenges
• •Chamath: Monroe Doctrine replaced by Trump Doctrine - hemispheric dominance, proactive intervention against cartels, transactional relationships vs multilateralism
• •Friedberg: Tech industry becomes political loser as lightning rod for populism on both left and right
• •Republican senators frustrated with specific tech companies viewed as untrustworthy, need truth and reconciliation meetings
• •Tech companies need to apologize for censorship and support conservative causes to repair relationship

Debate over whether Trump's three-hour Venezuela operation represents neoconservatism or a new doctrine. Sacks argues it's fundamentally different - no invasion, occupation, or nation-building. JCal counters that Trump is cosplaying neocon with threats against multiple countries, though execution has been flawless.

• •Venezuela operation lasted three hours, captured Maduro with zero American casualties - 'flawless operation'
• •Sacks: Not neocon because no invasion, occupation, or nation-building unlike Iraq/Afghanistan
• •Working with existing regime rather than installing Nobel Prize winner who lacks 'men with guns'
• •JCal: Trump threatening Greenland, Colombia, Cuba represents neocon positioning even if execution differs
• •Risk remains - could have had 12 captured Delta Force or 50 dead Americans if operation went sideways

Chamath predicts copper going parabolic due to 70% global supply shortage by 2040 driven by electrification and Trump's unilateral doctrine. Sacks sees trillions in new public market cap from IPO wave. JCal picks Amazon as first company to achieve more robots than humans driving bottom line.

• •Chamath: Copper critical for data centers, chips, weapon systems - facing 70% supply shortage by 2040 at current trajectory
• •Sacks: 2026 will be big IPO year with trillions in new public market cap, reversing trend of shrinking public companies
• •JCal: Amazon achieving corporate singularity - flat human hiring while surging robot deployment, same-day delivery everywhere
• •Friedberg: Huawei partnering with SMIC going deeper in chip stack, Polymarket evolving from quirky prediction market to news platform
• •100% accelerated depreciation on capital equipment (planes, tractors, generators) creating massive infrastructure buildout

Chamath predicts the $3-4 trillion software licensing economy will shrink as AI eliminates 90% of revenue from maintenance and migration. Friedberg warns state governments will face financing crisis as waste/fraud exposes reveal insolvency and unrealized pension liabilities.

• •Chamath: Software industrial complex facing contraction - 90% of revenue is maintenance/migration, both being automated by AI agents
• •His company's business has migrated 80-90% to disrupting maintenance and migration patterns - 'incredibly lucrative'
• •Friedberg: State governments can't access capital markets as waste/fraud exposes show insolvency, won't cut spending in response
• •Unrealized pension liabilities creating 'ginormous hole' - need to shift from defined benefit to defined contribution like Australia
• •Sacks: California losing due to wealth tax and regulations, two major refineries closing by spring causing higher gas prices

Traditional M&A is dead due to antitrust and export controls. Chamath predicts hundreds of billions in IP licensing deals as workaround - Google/Character AI, Microsoft, NVIDIA/Grok model. Friedberg sees Russia-Ukraine settling. JCal expects $50B+ acquisition of AI company by mag seven.

• •Chamath: Traditional M&A impossible - China blocking Manus acquisition, US antitrust taking 2+ years minimum for big tech deals
• •IP licensing replacing M&A - talent working next day, faster execution, tax treatment not ideal but speed phenomenal
• •Sacks: Coding assistants/tool use breakthrough in last month, feels like chatbots in 2022 going into 2023
• •Friedberg: Russia-Ukraine settlement likely this year due to economic and political motivating factors
• •JCal: Mag seven (Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Amazon) will make $50B+ offer for XAI, Mistral, Perplexity, or Anthropic

Chamath's contrarian call: SpaceX won't IPO but reverse merge into Tesla for Elon to consolidate control. Also predicts central banks will create new cryptographic paradigm beyond gold/Bitcoin for sovereign privacy and quantum resistance. Sacks argues AI will increase knowledge worker demand via Jevons Paradox.

• •Chamath: SpaceX will reverse merge into Tesla instead of IPO, allowing Elon to consolidate control of seminal assets into one cap table
• •Central banks will seek new cryptographic asset they control that's fungible, tradable, secure, and private for national security
• •Need quantum-resistant cryptography to hedge against quantum chips breaking existing schemes in 5-10 years
• •Sacks: AI increases knowledge worker demand (Jevons Paradox) - as cost drops, aggregate demand increases with more use cases
• •Radiology example: AI makes scans cheaper/easier, leading to more scans and more radiologists needed, not fewer

Friedberg picks Polymarket as best asset with network effects replacing media and markets. Chamath highlights basket of critical metals led by copper. Worst performers include California luxury real estate due to wealth tax overhang, hydrocarbons facing inexorable decline from electrification, and US dollar debasement.

• •Atlanta Fed GDP forecast jumps to 5.4% for Q4 2025, up from 2.7% estimate on January 5th - productivity surged 4.9%
• •Chamath expects 5-6.2% GDP growth in 2026 - only China has printed 6% under complete coordination, US doing it under democracy
• •Sacks: California luxury real estate worst asset due to wealth tax overhang, 5% mansion tax on properties over $25M killing LA market
• •Chamath: Hydrocarbons declining as electrification and energy storage trends are 'unstoppable' - oil more likely to see $45 than $65
• •JCal: US dollar challenged as debt grows $2T/year and military budget increases 50%, driving moves to gold/silver/copper

Friedberg anticipates Iran becoming independent democratic state as young population revolts against Ayatollahs amid economic crisis. Sacks wants auditing of all government spending normalized. JCal predicts mega IPO year with SpaceX, Stripe, Anthropic, or OpenAI going public. Citizen journalism and AI video games also highlighted.

• •Friedberg: Iran revolution likely in 2026 - young demographics, economic crisis making basic necessities unaffordable, weakening Ayatollahs
• •Could be biggest Middle East rewriting in decades, but may trigger conflicts among UAE, Saudi, Qatar over Palestinian care and influence
• •Sacks: Normalize auditing government spending at all levels - 'let a thousand Nick Shirleys bloom', Pentagon still hasn't passed audit
• •Chamath: Trump doctrine expansion of unilateralism and economic resilience is 'ginormous trend' driving massive GDP prints
• •JCal: Year of mega IPO - expects 2 of following to file: SpaceX, Stripe, Anthropic, OpenAI, Neuralink. Public wants these shares, half as many public companies as before