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Tarek Mansour is the Co-Founder and CEO @ Kalshi, the leader in the world of prediction markets. Just last week, they announced their $1BN raise at an $11BN valuation. In total, they have raised $1.59...
Tarek Mansour, CEO of Kalshi, discusses the company's $1B raise at $11B valuation and their strategy to become the leader in prediction markets. He shares insights on competing with Polymarket, the importance of regulatory compliance over growth shortcuts, and how prediction markets are evolving from niche trading platforms into mainstream news and information sources. Key themes include resilience through regulatory battles, the balance between product excellence and brand building, and why financial markets accessible to everyone represent a massive untapped opportunity.
Tarek explains that Kalshi is the fastest growing company in America outside of AI companies, and the billion-dollar raise positions them to capitalize on a rare shift in consumer behavior from passive news watchers to active prediction market participants. The capital enables faster execution in financial services, marketing scale, and meeting regulatory reserve requirements.
Tarek discusses the intense but productive rivalry with Polymarket, comparing it to Messi-Ronaldo dynamics where competition pushes both companies beyond their limits. He acknowledges past mistakes in competitive tactics but emphasizes that rivalries are essential for industries to mature and that the real winners are prediction market users getting better products.
Tarek shares the company's darkest moments, including three consecutive years of government blocking their election markets. After spending three years getting regulated, they faced pocket vetoes before the 2022 and 2023 elections, losing team members and investor confidence each time, before finally suing the government and winning in 2024.
Tarek explains that only 1-2% of prediction market users are active traders - the other 98% use it as a news and information source. He argues prediction markets democratize financial markets by letting people trade on topics they're experts in (politics, sports, culture) rather than competing against Wall Street on stocks where they have information asymmetry.
Tarek defends partnering with legacy media (CNN, CNBC) rather than immediately building their own news network, arguing they're not mutually exclusive and that education is the current priority. Prediction markets can extend news coverage from 'what's happening now' to 'what happens next,' creating symbiosis where both benefit.
Tarek explains fighting to protect early investors' pro-rata rights even when top-tier funds wanted to squeeze them out, viewing business as an infinite game where reputation compounds. He discusses why Sequoia's Alfred Lin is invaluable - not for simplistic VC advice, but for nuanced, counterbalancing perspectives that push founders to the right middle ground.
Tarek shares that SPF interviewed him at MIT and later was cold toward Kalshi when FTX was thriving. During 2020-2022, the regulated, compliant approach was 'unsexy' while offshore companies were winning. The key learning: stay true to your high-conviction approach regardless of external pressure, because in financial services, only regulatory-first companies last long-term.
Tarek admits being too product-driven for too long, believing perfection should come before marketing. He's learned that product and brand must be built together as muscles, not sequentially. Current challenge is evolving from a 100-person sprint culture to a structured organization with consistent processes while maintaining growth velocity.
Tarek's controversial hiring take: most people are mediocre for the specific job you're hiring for, and it's extremely hard to find top 5-10% performers. He questions whether companies over 250 people can maintain only A-players by definition, since A-players are extremely rare if you keep a high bar.
Tarek shares that his most memorable walking meetings are with Victor Lazarte (no agenda, just building mental models), discusses how growing up with a single mom embedded a subconscious chip on his shoulder, and explains why Messi is his GOAT - someone who stayed focused on the game despite fame and wealth.
20VC: Kalshi's $1BN Raise, the Polymarket Feud, and the Battle to Replace Traditional Media
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