2025 Retrospective — A Listener (Zac Gross) Interviews Me

Walker reveals he never moved to the UK as previously announced, instead staying in Australia while pursuing a US visa. He explains the pivot from UK (plan B) to US (plan A) and his focus on Australian content before relocating. Discusses the awkwardness of not updating his audience on these changed plans.

• •Obtained British passport but pivoted to US when visa became more attainable than expected
• •Stayed in Australia to complete Australian policy content before moving
• •Plans West Coast US location but won't announce specifics until confirmed
• •Half the audience likely thinks he's currently in the UK

Discussion of how the podcast business has evolved, including the mandatory shift to video for growth and discoverability. Walker explains how video enables more creative advertising approaches and discusses the 'everything is television' thesis affecting podcasting.

• •Started publishing video on YouTube, Substack, and X in 2024 - now mandatory for growth
• •Video platforms offer qualitatively different discoverability vs Apple Podcasts/Spotify
• •Ads becoming more creative and integrated - example: mini-interview format for employer branding
• •Experimented with live studio audiences and exploring documentary-style elements
• •Post-production bottleneck (1-2 weeks per episode) is main constraint on scaling

Walker explains why he largely avoided AI content in 2025 despite it being ubiquitous on other podcasts. His decision framework centers on 'counterfactual value' - what unique contribution he can make. He's skeptical of AGI timelines and believes AI is both underrated and overrated depending on context.

• •Guiding principle: maximize counterfactual value - AI now oversaturated in his circles
• •In 2023 AI was underrated, but by 2025 less unique value in covering it
• •Skeptical of LLMs/scaling paradigm delivering AGI, would be 'very surprised' by end of decade
• •Uses AI extensively for podcast production (transcripts, research, voice mode prep)
• •Would need 3-4 weeks technical prep to interview AI lab leaders at appropriate level

Walker discusses his heavy focus on Australian public policy in 2025, initially conceived as a 'parting gift' before moving to the US. He realized this niche was severely underserved and continued despite international audience trade-offs. Plans to maintain both Australian policy and general intellectual content streams.

• •Originally planned as pre-departure contribution, but continued due to underserved niche
• •No one else doing long-form Australian policy conversations at this level
• •Facing conundrum between Australian policy focus vs international appeal
• •Solution: do both with separate labeling/numbering systems
• •Top episodes: Barry Marshall (boosted by Steve Pinker share), Hugh White, Greg Kaplan/Michael Brennan

Deep dive into what makes Australia exceptional. Walker identifies the 'dark matter' of Australian state capacity as political culture of faith in administrative state and obedience to impersonal authority. Discusses three dimensions of state capacity: extractive, coordination, and compliance - with Australia excelling particularly at compliance.

• •Boring explanation: good culture plus abundant land/resources
• •Key 'dark matter': statism, faith in administrative state, obedience to impersonal authority
• •Three state capacity dimensions: extractive, coordination, compliance - Australia strong on all, especially compliance
• •Australia excels at big technological projects (single touch payroll, myGov, RBA payments)
• •Flip side: sometimes experts make mistakes unchecked for decades (planning system, housing shortage)

Walker's biggest intellectual update of 2025 came from Peter Tulip's estimate that even maximally ambitious deregulation would take 10-20 years to reduce Sydney/Melbourne prices 30-40%. This revealed housing won't be solved within our lifetimes through YIMBY alone, requiring rethinking of urgency and solutions.

• •Peter Tulip estimate: 10-20 years for maximal deregulation to achieve 30-40% price reduction
• •Based on rule of thumb: 1% supply increase reduces prices 2.5%
• •National cabinet target of 1.2M homes over 5 years insufficient and won't be met
• •YIMBY rhetoric as 'silver bullet' is wrong - not solvable in 3 political terms
• •Housing urgency will increase dramatically if Australia loses great power protector
• •Weak policy levers mean pulling them harder, plus examining construction costs

Walker learned from Abu Rizvi that slowing population aging was the main motivation for 2001 immigration changes - undersold to the public. He's skeptical this rationale matters much, noting the eschatological framing around aging doesn't account for productivity growth or other societal changes.

• •2001 immigration changes primarily motivated by slowing population aging - not publicly emphasized
• •Walker skeptical of population aging as primary concern - can't forecast productivity/AI/demand
• •Immigration slows but can't reverse aging (immigrants age too)
• •Planning more immigration content for early 2026
• •International students as migration pipeline: slightly overrated now, causes university quality issues

Tyler Cowen-style rapid assessment of key topics. Notable takes: AUKUS overrated (US won't deliver), productivity statistics overrated, US-China conflict underrated, baby bonus underrated (rare TFR increase), life extension underrated (people too accepting of death), AGI advent overrated as probability.

• •AUKUS: Overrated - US extended deterrence increasingly less credible
• •Nuclear weapons for liberal democracies: becoming less overrated given regional dynamics
• •Productivity statistics: slightly overrated once you see how sausage is made
• •Baby bonus: underrated - one of few developed country TFR increases
• •Life extension: underrated - people too accepting of death, wants 80+ more years
• •AGI by end of decade: overrated - would be 'very surprised', diffusion will be slow
• •Thucydides trap: overrated - too deterministic, ignores contingency

Walker expresses renewed appreciation for Australia's cabinet system after interviewing Glyn Davis and Terry Moran. The Cabinet Handbook documents evolved practices not in constitution, revealing how PM power works through agenda-setting and committee structure rather than formal authority.

• •Cabinet Handbook massively underrated - 40-50 pages documenting century of evolved practice
• •PM power sources: agenda-setting as chair, determining cabinet committees, divide-and-conquer approach
• •Some committees (Parliamentary Business, National Security) can decide without full cabinet approval
• •Cabinet system beautifully malleable, adapts well to crises, explains high state capacity
• •National cabinet underrated - effective decision-making forum still in early days
• •Government can teach private sector about robust processes evolved through crises

When asked what to tell a US governor about Australian state capacity, Walker suggests switching to Westminster system or establishing independent evidence-based institutions like the Productivity Commission. Discusses plans for 2026 including pursuing Paul Keating interview and maintaining dual Australian/international content streams.

• •US advice: Switch to Westminster system or create independent policy institutions
• •US lacks equivalent to Productivity Commission - think tanks often compromised by funders
• •US problems: risk aversion in bureaucracy, procedural fetishism, adversarial legal environment
• •2026 dream guest: Paul Keating (early 80s, wants to do it soon)
• •Plans: biweekly or weekly publishing if can solve post-production bottleneck
• •Will maintain bifurcated approach: Australian policy + general intellectual content with separate numbering
• •Considering listener feedback mechanisms beyond Twitter/YouTube comments