20VC's Big Fat Quiz of the Year: Founder, Fund and Breakout Company of 2025 | Predictions for 2026: The Company to Buy, The Biggest Short | Why Salesforce Could Win 2026 and The Tailwinds NVIDIA Will Face

Deep dive into why Dario Amodei and Anthropic's Claude 3.7 dominated 2025. The model enabled the entire vibe coding revolution, powering Cursor, Lovable, Replit, and Gamma. Discussion covers Anthropic's strategic execution, faster growth than OpenAI, and valuation convergence despite concerns about unemployment predictions.

• •Claude 3.7 was the foundational technology enabling vibe coding products that didn't work until this release
• •Anthropic achieved faster growth rate than OpenAI while maintaining profitability focus
• •Products like Cursor, Lovable, Replit, and Gamma are 90% powered by Anthropic's models
• •Dario played a steady hand as CEO, choosing the 'sensible party' approach over aggressive scaling
• •Gwen Shotwell at SpaceX also recognized for navigating challenging geopolitical times while preparing for largest IPO ever

Analysis of top-performing venture funds based on actual exits and returns. Index Ventures led with Wiz, Figma, and Revolut exits. Neo's aesthetic success with first checks into Cursor, Cognition, and Calci. Discussion of how there's no ceiling on venture returns anymore, fundamentally changing the industry math.

• •Index delivered multiple major exits: Wiz (not yet closed), Figma, and Revolut at $75B valuation
• •Neo hustled into Cursor as second investor, putting $5M of personal capital, demonstrating new accelerator model
• •Hummingbird returned 8x on $100M fund with Lovable exit at $800M+ and Kraken position
• •Benchmark's 2021 fund includes Manus, Sierra, Firework, Ligura, Cerebrus, and LangChain - killer portfolio
• •The rebirth of accelerators (Neo, South Park Commons, HF Zero) challenging YC's dominance

Identification of companies that rode the AI wave most successfully. Databricks accelerated to 55% growth at $5B revenue by pivoting from cloud compute to AI. Eleven Labs scaled to $400M ARR with best-of-breed voice AI. Open Evidence captured 500K doctors in one year with targeted medical search.

• •Databricks rode AI wave from cloud data management to 55% growth at $5B revenue, matching Snowflake's scale
• •Eleven Labs reached $400M ARR by delivering $30/10-minute solution vs $2,000/2-week traditional approach
• •Open Evidence went from zero to 500K doctors (of 1M in US) by perfectly targeting medical research needs
• •Drug companies pay premium for targeted advertising to doctors searching for specific diseases
• •The key to breakout success: massive value delivery (100x cost reduction, 200x time savings)

The talent wars shocked the industry with $100M+ individual compensation packages and $14B acqui-hires. Meta bought companies just for people, discarding the actual business. The realization that there's no ceiling on venture outcomes, with trillion-dollar IPOs imminent, fundamentally changes all investment math and strategy.

• •Companies willing to pay $100M+ per individual and $14B for acqui-hires (Meta/Character.AI)
• •Logic: if spending $73B on CapEx, spending $5B on talent to use it properly makes sense
• •No ceiling on venture anymore - potential for two trillion-dollar IPOs in 2026 changes all calculations
• •Lowercase Capital (Chris Saka) now leading deals at $5B valuation vs historical $3-5M seed deals
• •Autonomy plus reasoning breakthrough in late 2025 - agents can now actually deliver value beyond coding

Detailed analysis of which public tech stocks will outperform in 2026. The 'Pokamomosuccos' group (Palantir, Cloudflare, Mongo, Shopify, CrowdStrike, Snowflake) likely to maintain top positions. Salesforce identified as potential biggest winner if Agent Force delivers on GTM automation promises.

• •Top 6 B2B stocks (Palantir, Cloudflare, Mongo, Shopify, CrowdStrike, Snowflake) likely to stay dominant
• •Salesforce at 5.5x revenue (all-time low) could be biggest opportunity if Agent Force achieves 20% co-attach
• •Every Salesforce customer will want Agent Force when it can eliminate 200 sales team members with working AI
• •Bottom performers (GitLab, Atlassian, Adobe, Monday, Bill, HubSpot) talk AI but haven't proven co-attach lift
• •Adobe's '$5B AI-influenced revenue' is performative - doesn't count unless it's net new bookings

Critical analysis of how companies are monetizing AI features. Notion successfully doubled pricing from $10 to $20/month by delivering genuine value. Microsoft's copilot approach failed by not providing enough value to justify separate pricing. The key: deliver quantum value increase or bundle it free.

• •Notion achieved 50% growth at $600M by successfully doubling pricing to $20/month for AI features
• •The expensive copilot was 2025's biggest failure - not enough value to charge separately, not free in base product
• •Companies must be 'hard nosed' about both delivering value and making customers pay for it
• •Risk: bundling AI without revenue lift reduces operating margins by 10% while adding no value
• •2025 was the year coding and support AI worked; 2026 will be the year GTM agents work at scale

Strategic analysis of mega-cap tech stocks for 2026. Consensus: buy Google (upside if CapEx cycle moderates), short NVIDIA (needs continued CapEx acceleration). Apple identified as biggest risk trading at all-time multiples with sub-10% growth and no AI catalyst. Amazon underperformer despite AWS strength.

• •Google has upside regardless of CapEx cycle direction; NVIDIA needs continued acceleration to justify valuation
• •Apple trading at all-time PE multiple with <10% growth and no AI catalyst - highest risk
• •Amazon stock only up 2% in 2025 despite strong fundamentals - likely underperformer in 2026
• •NVIDIA safe for 2026 because competition can't produce enough alternative chips in time
• •Microsoft, Apple, Amazon are 'meh in the middle' - not getting AI lift like Google/NVIDIA

Predictions for which mega-companies will go public in 2026. SpaceX first (summer), Canva second (numbers are there, do it before looking obsolete), Databricks in back half (it's just time), Anthropic end of year (simpler capital solution). OpenAI delayed to 2027 due to burn rate. Discussion of unprecedented challenge of trillion-dollar IPOs.

• •Four predicted IPOs: SpaceX (summer), Canva (mid-year), Databricks (back half), Anthropic (end of year)
• •OpenAI pushed to 2027 due to excessive burn rate despite should-go-first status
• •Unprecedented banking challenge: how to IPO at $1T valuation with only $50B float and $950B locked up
• •Risk: institutional investors are ruthless sellers at price targets, unlike retail believers in Tesla/Palantir
• •Stripe least likely - no urgency despite being ready from operational standpoint

Critical discussion on AI's impact on employment and societal backlash. Prediction: if unemployment rises even 2-3 points for any reason, society will blame AI because executives have 'confessed to the crime.' The mere perception of AI-driven job losses will trigger massive political and social backlash regardless of actual causation.

• •AI executives have 'admitted the crime' by publicly stating AI will impact employment
• •If unemployment rises 2-3 points for ANY reason (tariffs, business cycle), AI will be blamed
• •Society will be 'terrified of AI' when hard numbers show job losses at dinner table conversations
• •Politics doesn't wait for correlation analysis - perception of AI causing unemployment is enough
• •Investor perspective: 'If robots take over society, I want to own the robots' - Elon Musk's literal strategy