CEO Vlad Tenev on Robinhood's Record Year (+200%, ~$100B Market Cap)

Vlad explains how Robinhood evolved from primarily options/crypto/equities during COVID to 11 business lines generating $100M+ annually. He details the shift from being criticized as a fair-weather business to becoming 'all-weather' with diversified revenue including margin lending, cash sweep, Gold subscriptions, and prediction markets reaching scale.

• •11 business lines now generate $100M+ annually (up from 3 at IPO), including prediction markets and Bitstamp institutional business
• •Cash sweep program grew from nothing in 2022 to tens of billions in custody, offering 3.5% yield while keeping 75bps spread
• •Margin book more than doubled in 2024 after becoming competitive on rates and UX
• •Robinhood Gold reached 4M subscribers (15% of customers, 40% of new customers), now a 9-figure business
• •Three strategic arcs: #1 for active traders, #1 wallet share for next generation, global expansion (50%+ revenue outside US in 10 years)

Vlad details new prediction market features including web access, sports combos/parlays, and individual player actions. He explains how the 2024 election was 'ground zero' for prediction markets and outlines future disruption potential in insurance, weather hedging, and other industries beyond sports.

• •Prediction markets now accessible on web (not just app), functioning as both trading product and news media source
• •Sports combos allow personalized, bespoke contracts - similar to parlays but expandable to any category
• •2024 presidential election was the catalyzing event that created 'prediction market super cycle'
• •Weather prediction markets can disrupt insurance industry - already competitive with traditional fire/hurricane insurance products
• •Pre-institutional adoption at scale - still early innings with massive disruption potential across multiple industries

Introduction of Cortex, Robinhood's AI model that provides real-time market analysis, stock/crypto digests, and now conversational interface with full context of user financials. Users can scan entire trading universe and execute trades via voice commands.

• •Cortex has full context of all user financials plus real-time market data on all tradable instruments
• •Can execute complex tasks like scanning entire stock universe and placing trades via voice commands
• •Already powering stock/crypto digests and Legend platform screeners/indicators
• •Solves problem of getting AI analysis on personal financial data without manual work of uploading to ChatGPT
• •Functions as 'super intelligent financial knowledge' assistant at your disposal

Vlad discusses the challenge of simultaneously adding sophisticated products for aging customers while remaining attractive to 18-24 year olds. He emphasizes avoiding the 'generational company trap' that legacy brokers fell into, ensuring Robinhood stays relevant for each new generation.

• •Must add complex products as customers age (prevent graduation to Schwab) while staying simple for newcomers
• •Legacy brokers became 'generational companies' - certain death as wealth transfers to kids less tied to those brands
• •Young people adopt technology sooner, but prediction markets seeing engagement across all age groups (40s-50s too)
• •Prediction markets weren't specifically designed for young people - adoption pattern emerged organically
• •Key is maintaining relevance for next generation while serving evolving needs of existing customers

Vlad explains how Robinhood transformed earnings calls from boring scripted Polycom sessions to entertaining live video events at Chase Center, drawing 100K+ viewers. He used NBA postgame interviews as inspiration, making calls accessible to retail investors and media, not just sell-side analysts.

• •Increased earnings audience from hundreds to 100K+ by making them entertaining and accessible
• •Used NBA playoff postgame interviews as model - entertaining whether you win or lose
• •Broke constraint that only sell-side analysts can ask questions - added retail, buy-side, and media
• •Live video, Zoom Q&A, and venue (Chase Center) created engaging experience vs. scripted Polycom calls
• •Other companies (like Opendoor) now copying format, livestreaming earnings in Robinhood app to retail shareholders

Vlad argues retail shareholders become company defenders during rocky periods, using crypto's regulatory battles as example. He identifies major problem: AI companies lack retail investor base for grassroots support, unlike crypto which had retail army from day one.

• •Retail shareholders defend companies during controversy - became significant voting block for crypto regulation
• •AI is fastest adopted technology but least popular - people fear job loss without ownership stake
• •Google somewhat solved this by getting AI efforts into gear, but OpenAI/Anthropic/startups out of reach for retail
• •Crypto succeeded against regulatory overreach because so many retail investors owned it and wanted protection
• •Lack of retail investment in AI companies creates vulnerability - no grassroots support during controversies

Vlad contrasts COVID-era trading (concentrated in bankrupt stocks, nostalgia plays like GameStop/AMC, and Dogecoin) with today's healthier, diversified retail activity. Current trading is spread across real companies with revenue/growth, particularly AI stocks, creating more stable foundation.

• •COVID waves: bankrupt stocks (Hertz), brick-and-mortar nostalgia (GameStop/AMC), airlines - 'retail bailout' via stimulus
• •2021 felt unstable with ephemeral thesis behind investments; 2025 feels more meaningful and substantive
• •Current retail investing in AI disruption with real products, revenue, users (ChatGPT weekly actives, chip production)
• •Robinhood now $350B AUC, well diversified vs. 2021's high crypto concentration (especially Dogecoin)
• •Record trading volumes dispersed across many stocks vs. concentrated in meme stocks - healthier retail investor base

Vlad explains tokenization mechanics using stablecoins as example, then details Robinhood's expansion to 1,500+ tokenized stocks in Europe. Three-phase plan includes Bitstamp integration for 24/7 trading and DeFi access for self-custody and collateralized lending.

• •Tokenization: custody real asset, mint/burn tokens against it for 24/7 trading and DeFi access
• •Expanded from 400 to 1,500+ tokenized stocks in Europe in one quarter
• •Three phases: tokenize more stocks, integrate with Bitstamp for 24/7 trading, unleash on DeFi for self-custody/lending
• •Solves liquidity problem for illiquid assets - crypto provides trading infrastructure, TradFi provides custody
• •Vision: anything can be tradable real-time like a stock (art, cars, collectibles, private companies)

Vlad outlines strategy for retail access to private companies through Robinhood Ventures closed-end fund in US and tokenization outside US (SpaceX/OpenAI giveaways). Goal is making early-stage fundraising easier to drive more entrepreneurship, with companies now proactively seeking retail investors.

• •Robinhood Ventures Fund 1: closed-end listed fund for diversified private company exposure in US
• •Tokenization of individual private companies legal outside US - did SpaceX/OpenAI token giveaways in EU
• •Shift from companies ignoring retail (2021 IPO Access) to proactively reaching out for retail strategy advice
• •Vision: 5 years from now, retail access to private companies will be standard part of capital raises
• •Ultimate goal: unlock early-stage opportunities for retail to drive more entrepreneurship and higher returns

Vlad discusses Harmonic, his AI research company building mathematical superintelligence. Aristotle model achieved gold medal on International Math Olympiad, solved 11 Erdős problems (faster than expected), and scored 10/12 on Putnam competition, surpassing most human mathematicians.

• •North Star: solve Millennium Prize problems (open for hundreds of years) to unlock theoretical physics breakthroughs
• •Ultimate physics goal: unify four fundamental forces into theory of everything (could enable faster-than-light travel)
• •Aristotle became first model to get gold medal on International Math Olympiad (hardest math competition)
• •Solved 11 Erdős problems autonomously - much faster timeline than expected (thought it would take a year)
• •Scored 10/12 on Putnam competition (Vlad got 0) - 'child has surpassed parent in mathematical ability'