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Jian Lian is an expert on China's political economy, industrial development, and technological development. He graduated from Peking University with a bachelor's and master's degree in economics. Star...
Jian Lian, a Chinese policy analyst and former venture capitalist, discusses China's industrial policy evolution from grassroots internet movements to government strategy. He explains how the 'industrial party' movement emerged from online forums in the 2000s, advocating for manufacturing and hard tech over internet platforms, ultimately influencing policies like Made in China 2025. Lian provides insider perspectives on semiconductor development, the regulation of tech giants like Alibaba, and China's systematic approach to building supply chain independence through strategic investments in hard technology, robotics, EVs, and grid infrastructure.
Lian traces the industrial party's grassroots origins from internet forums (BBS) in 2003-2005, explaining how it emerged as a counter-movement to Western-influenced economic liberalism. This bottom-up intellectual movement emphasized manufacturing and real economy over internet platforms, eventually intersecting with government traditions favoring material production.
Lian reveals how China's semiconductor strategy emerged through interaction between non-government intellectuals and smart officials. A friend with EE background wrote a 10,000-word policy paper that reached a Deputy Prime Minister, leading to the creation of the Big Fund in 2013-2014, demonstrating China's decision-making is not purely top-down.
Discussion of how China's supply chain independence strategy evolved not from initial intent to dominate globally, but from national security concerns about oil dependency (driving EV strategy) and later accelerated by US sanctions forcing domestic supply chain development.
Lian highlights critical demographic advantage: Japan and Germany's 'hidden champions' are run by people in their 60s-70s with no succession, while China's equivalent companies are led by people in their 20s-40s with venture capital backing, creating systematic acceleration in hard tech development.
Lian explains Xi's regulation of Alibaba and tech platforms as preventing monopoly power and predatory lending, not anti-innovation. The goal was redirecting resources from consumer internet to hard tech while preventing platforms from becoming too powerful to regulate, contrasting with US where companies control government.
Lian details Made in China 2025's focus areas (EVs, robotics, machine tools, new materials, medicine, high-speed rail) and explains how 70%+ of goals were achieved, exceeding his 2015 expectations. National venture capital investment in BYD (2015) and CATL created turning point for EV industry cluster formation.
Discussion of how China's ultra-high voltage transmission technology and flexible grid infrastructure, developed before renewable surge, enables massive solar/wind deployment. Grid development was strategic decision by 'electricity emperor' Liu Zhenya, not just technology evolution.
Lian expresses confidence China will achieve EUV capability through engineering-level innovation, noting ASML's technology isn't magic but accumulated engineering. He emphasizes China's talent cluster and willingness to let young engineers try new approaches will overcome this milestone.
Lian predicts China will build economic circle with Global South to create artificial markets, countering oversupply concerns. He claims China has 100+ areas like rare earths where it can impact US, and believes globalization is over, requiring China to develop independent economic sphere.
Lian argues Chinese stock market won't match S&P 500 returns because China doesn't pursue asset inflation strategy. He criticizes US market as artificially inflated by dollar hegemony and money printing, widening wealth gaps. Recommends investing in specific companies like BYD rather than indices.
Jian Lian on China's Industrial Policy and Global Strategy – #99
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